Kedar’s Emirates Plan: A Tribal Alternative to the Failed PA Model

Prof. Mordechai Kedar has long argued that Western models of statehood cannot solve the conflict in Judea and Samaria. In a recent interview, he explained why Arab tribal society offers a more realistic foundation for governance than the Palestinian Authority, and why an Emirates‑style system may be the only workable alternative to the current dysfunction.

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Prof. Mordechai Kedar begins with a simple observation. Egypt and Syria build national identity by cultivating hatred for an external enemy. Tribes do not need that. They are legitimate by definition and united from within. This distinction forms the basis of his Emirates solution for the Arabs living under the Palestinian Authority.

In our conversation, I first asked Kedar to respond to Dan Diker’s revival of the Villages League model, which I discussed in Part 1 of this series. Kedar praised the Villages League as a successful initiative created by Menachem Milson, someone who truly understands the Middle East. It was cancelled, he said, only because Peres and Begin preferred to pursue the PA.

I then raised the concern voiced by Diker and by Pinhas Inbari in Part 2, that many tribes resemble crime families. Inbari argued that peace cannot be built on mafia‑like clans and suggested working through chambers of commerce instead. Kedar rejected this framing. Speaking of crime families, he said, reflects a Western mindset that sees nepotism as corruption. In the UAE, nepotism is the system. Brothers and cousins hold power because they share culture, loyalty and responsibility. To Western eyes that looks like criminality. To Arab society it is normal governance. Jabari in Hebron and Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, he said, operate with the same mentality.

One common objection to the Emirates plan is economic. The Gulf Emirates have oil. The PA does not. Kedar dismissed this. Dubai has no oil and it is Heaven on Earth. Iraq has oil and it is Hell. What matters is legitimate administration, not natural resources. If you have oil you are rich because of oil. If you do not have oil you are rich because of business.

Kedar believes the moment may be right for new thinking. More than 85 percent of the PA population wants Abbas and the corrupt leadership gone. Many fear a Hamas takeover and do not want Gaza’s fate. Tribal structures, he argues, once provided stability. Today they are pulled apart by three competing forces. He described it as a carriage pulled by three horses: tribalism, Islam and modernism. Tribalism is the oldest. Islam and jihadism arose 1400 years ago. Modernism is only 240 years old. Tribalism is not inherently hostile to Israel. Peace with Jordan and Egypt is cold. Peace with the UAE, a tribal society, is warm.

Kedar then made a point that surprised me. A state does not make a nation. Iraq is not a nation because its citizens belong to separate clans that do not intermarry. The same is true in the PA. Someone from Hebron will not marry someone from Tulkarem or Nablus. People are loyal to tribe, sect or religion, not to a state. If you create a state by conglomerating clans, you get mayhem, like Syria. If you build a state on one dominant clan, you get stability.

His proposal is simple. Create eight city‑Emirates: Hebron, Jericho, Ramallah, Tulkarem, Qalqiliya, Nablus, Jenin and Gaza. Each would sign its own bilateral agreements with Israel. The rural villages would become part of Israel and their residents would receive full Israeli citizenship.

I asked how a single Emirate could function in a city like Hebron, where tribes compete and where some clans align with Hamas. Kedar said clans can restrain jihadists when necessary. They have mechanisms to resolve internal conflict, especially the tribal courts, mahkama 'ashairiyya, whose rulings all clans obey.

Gaza, he said, could once have been treated as a clan system. Since the war, family structures have collapsed. When I asked whether Arab towns inside Israel might become Emirates, he said they already function as autonomies. So yes.

Finally, I asked about the accusation that his plan resembles South African Bantustans. Kedar rejected the comparison. The whites in South Africa had no historic roots in Africa. The Jewish people are the historic owners of the Land of Israel. And if the Palestinian Emirates flourish like the Gulf Emirates, the Bantustan claim will lose credibility.

Kedar ended with a simple summary. Israel will have safety and security. The Palestinian Emirates will build prosperous lives. Compared to the deep dysfunction of the current reality, his plan may offer a more workable future for both peoples.

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